Unprecedented Protests in Cuba…A Commentary: Spontaneous protests by those who had never previously participated in such activities and enabled by social media broke out on Sunday in at least 25 cities across Cuba. I use the word unprecedented because this has never happened on the island since the revolution of 1959. The last major protests and demonstrations occurred in 1994 in the aftermath of the Russian withdrawal from the island but they were largely limited to Havana. These protests on Sunday were different and some context is necessary to understand them.
The Obama administration dramatically changed relations with Cuba by engaging with its leaders and raised hope for change to millions of Cubans on the island. Those hopes were raised even further with a new government led by Miguel Diaz Canel who represents the post-revolutionary generation and a new constitution promising more change. More and more young Cubans gained access to the internet and social media. This hope for change was expressed to me quite often by contacts that I have in Havana. Noted dissidents, Yoani Sanchez and her husband, who live in Cuba created an independent, digital media presence which openly criticizes the government (see 14ymedio). Despite continued harassment and arrests by the government, the number of dissident groups, such as the San Isidro Artist’s movement, have increased and appeared in the open asking for real change.
These hopes were dashed by a perfect storm that hit Cuba. That perfect storm consisted of the Trump administration reverting back to the old US policies of confrontation and punishment; the collapse of the Venezuelan economy and the loss of access to needed oil; rising inflation due to changes in the monetary system; and the COVID pandemic with its devastating effects on the Cuban people, its economy, and tourism which is the primary source of foreign exchange for the island. The worst economy since the early 90s has returned Cubans to waiting in line for food, increased unemployment, rising costs, and rolling blackouts. Hope has morphed into frustration and anger.
That frustration and anger, especially among young Cubans, was on full display on Sunday. A small protest in San Antonio de los Banos (southwest of Havana in the Artemisa Province) in the morning spread spontaneously and quickly to other cities across the island via social media and the internet, much like the Arab Spring of 2011. The immediate causes were frustration over the economy, the scarcity of basic goods, and a recent, dramatic increase in the number of COVID cases across the island. Yet, these protests represent a deeper frustration in the aftermath of crushed hope for real change. While most of the protests were peaceful, there were examples of violence by both government security forces and some of the protesters. There were no visible protests yesterday (Monday) on the island as government security forces cut internet communications across the island.
The real question to ask is will this frustration and anger sustain a continued effort by the Cuban people to act despite the increased presence of security forces throughout the major cities. Will the frustration and anger over the immediate privations lead to a sustained and organized effort to address more fundamental grievances, especially those of a new generation? This is what I will be looking for over the next few weeks. I will provide commentary on my blog. For an overview of the history of Cuba up to Obama's opening see my book The History of Cuba (2nd edition, 2015).
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