Expectations for the success of the newly elected Biden administration in January of 2021 were extraordinarily high among his supporters despite the fact that control in the Senate, at a minimum, depended upon every Democrat supporting the President’s agenda. Biden faced a sharply divided partisan public, an opposition party that would provide little to no help to pass legislation, and public faith in all governing institutions at almost an all-time low. The political atmosphere was toxic given continued Republican support for the Big Lie and the mounting evidence of Trump’s culpability in several attempts to overturn the 2020 presidential election and in his handling of classified documents. This was/is the environment in which the Biden administration had to function.
The American Rescue Plan in March of 2021 was passed via the budget reconciliation process which requires only 51 votes in the Senate. This passed with no support from Republicans. At that point it became difficult to push through the remainder of the President’s agenda given the split between progressives and key moderates in the party and disagreement among party members about jettisoning or carving out exceptions to the filibuster. This “sausage-making" legislative process was on full display on the 24 hour news networks for much of 2021 and 2022 which gave the impression that the Biden administration’s agenda would never see the light of day. Yet, by all measures almost all of the President’s domestic agenda has passed. By my count and within 19 months, the administration has passed six significant pieces of legislation.
It passed the American Rescue Plan Act which extended the existing COVID programs, continued stimulus payments and jobless benefits, created a child tax credit, and provided benefits to small businesses and education institutions during the height of the COVID crisis in 2021. It was the largest vaccination program in the history of the country and saved hundreds of thousands of lives. It passed the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act which provides $1.2 trillion to improve roads, bridges, mass transit, railways, airports, ports and waterways, waste systems, the electrical grid, and to increase electric vehicle network plug-in sites. It passed the so-called CHIPS act which will provide $53 billion dollars in investment to the US manufacture of semi-conductors. It passed the PACT Act, a veteran’s health-care bill to support those who were poisoned by toxins from burn pits and Agent Orange. It passed a bill which begins to address the issue of gun violence in our country with provisions focusing on extended background checks, the boyfriend loophole, red flag laws, gun trafficking, licensing of gun sellers, and funding for local mental health programs. Finally, the Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act via the budget reconciliation process which will allow the government to negotiate drug prices and caps out of pocket drug expenses, provides subsidies to continue affordable healthcare, sets the minimum corporate tax at 15%, and provides $369 billion to begin to address the existential threat of climate change. Biden has also issued important executive orders including those that address the minimum wage for workers of federal contractors, supply chain issues, immigration, a woman’s ability to travel across state lines to receive reproductive healthcare, and college debt relief. In his first 12 months Biden appointed more federal judges than any president since Reagan and 80% of those appointed were female and 53% of those were people of color. By any comparative measure, these accomplishments should be touted as a tremendous success story.
By all indicators but one, the economy under Biden is in excellent shape. A 40-year low in the unemployment rate, increases in real wages, record job creation, and continuing demand for more jobs are all signs of a strong economy. But, the high inflation rate still overwhelms all of these other indicators. The inflation was caused by global and national supply chain issues related to the pandemic economy, pent up demand from the pandemic, and a global oil supply and refining capacity that can’t meet demand. Oil companies, despite the high prices of oil, have not ramped up production as they historically would have done in this situation. CEOs of all major oil companies have stated that they desire to avoid the historic boom-bust cycles of oil production and have made the decision to pay back investors. They also know that auto companies will be producing only electric vehicles by 2035 to 2050. This has changed their long term strategic plans on major investments in future oil production. The war in Ukraine has not helped with the supply of oil either. Although I do note that the cost of gasoline has declined for more than 70 days in a row and the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act will also help in the long run by reducing energy and healthcare costs.
In foreign policy, Biden has restored our working relationship and leadership role with our most important allies in NATO and the EU. The strengthened NATO unity is on full display against the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Supported by an overwhelming majority of Americans, Biden withdrew from a 20 year conflict in Afghanistan and is working with the major powers to prevent the Iranian development of nuclear weapons. He has rejoined the global struggle against climate change. Perhaps unnoticed he is shifting US global priorities to the Pacific Rim region which represents the fastest growing economies in the world and the area of tremendous Chinese influence. He is moving quickly to correct the decision by Trump to pull out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. This decision opened the door to growing Chinese economic influence and left the US without a seat at the region’s economic decision-making table.
The administration has not been successful in passing crucial national voting rights changes that are necessary to override the voter suppression and restrictions that have been introduced in Republican-led states. This was due to the unwillingness of some Democrats to jettison or carve out an exception to the filibuster and the complete lack of support from Republicans. Should Democrats retain control of both the House and the Senate in the midterm elections, it is crucial to address voting rights again. Nationwide reproductive healthcare protections and a comprehensive immigration reform bill must also be on the agenda should the Democrats retain control of the Congress.
Should the Republicans gain control of the House and Senate, they will move to restrict healthcare rights of women by attempting to ban abortion nationwide and placing women’s reproductive health at risk. I note that McConnell has few problems with carving out exceptions to the filibuster to pursue his agenda. Given McConnell’s past practices, I have no doubt that he will simply not take up anymore judicial appointees by Biden. Any changes to voting rights and comprehensive immigration reform will not occur should Republicans gain control of even one house of the Congress.
Midterm elections typically have lower voter turnout and almost always favor the party that does not occupy the White House. Given that Democrats have a 4-vote majority in House and there is a 50-50 divide in the Senate, it looks like Republicans are poised to gain control of the Congress. In essence, the midterm election is seen as a referendum on the President. Biden has much working in his favor in terms of accomplishments but the high inflation rate may well be the dominating factor for many voters.
Yet, there are perhaps several reasons why this fall could possibly be an exception to the rule. In particular, the abortion decision and abortion bans in many states may serve to mobilize Democratic and suburban Republican women and men to participate more than they typically do in midterms. The large turnout and the overwhelming referedum vote in favor of a woman's choice in Kansas is clear evidence of this. This could change the expected outcome in competitive House districts. Turnout is the key to the midterm elections and younger voters may also make a difference as they are overwhelmingly pro-choice and pro-Democratic. They turned out in large numbers in 2018 and 2020. Finally, Republicans are defending 21 Senate seats whereas Democrats are only defending 14. Several are competitive and several are competititve because Republicans have nominated candidates that are seen by some moderate Republicans as too radical, too Trump. McConnell was very vocal about this in his criticism of several Republican candidates for the Senate. The abortion issue will also play a role in the Senate elections. Finally, should Trump continue to dominate the news cycles, the midterms may also be viewed by many voters as a referendum on Trump rather than Biden. This is the primary reason why Republicans in competitive districts want to talk about anything but Trump.
Vamos a ver. We are going to see.
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