The political, economic, and humanitarian crisis in Venezuela took an unexpected turn when Juan Guaido, the President of the National Assembly and member of the Socialist Democratic Popular Will Party, declared himself to be the Interim President in Caracas on January 23. The opposition staged massive demonstrations and then held a make shift ceremony for Guaido to claim the interim presidency. Under the Venezuelan Constitution, the President of the National Assembly can become Interim President and hold new elections in the case of a vacancy in the office of the presidency. Guaido argues that Maduro is an illegitimate president because last May’s election was fraudulent. Guaido was immediately recognized by the Lima Group (Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, and St. Lucia), the European Union (EU), and the United States (US) as the legitimate interim president.
The often-fragmented opposition to Chavismo, consists of center-right, center, and center-left parties that are typically made up of middle and upper class individuals. Guido, a 35-year-old industrial engineer who also has a graduate degree from George Washington University, started in politics by organizing student protests against Hugo Chavez. He is a relative newcomer to the National Assembly and with opposition leaders either jailed, exiled, or denied the ability to run for public office, the charismatic Guaido has been able to unite the opposition in a daring plan to end Chavismo. The US placed additional sanctions on Venezuela this past Monday (January 28). Payments by US companies to the Venezuelan State Oil Company (PDVSA) will now be placed in an account in which Nicolas Maduro does not have access with the goal of giving Guaido access to these funds. Guaido spoke to President Trump on the telephone yesterday (January 30).
I say daring because one must note that Guiado now faces the real possibility of being arrested or detained by the Maduro government. Despite his growing international support and uniting the opposition in Venezuela, he controls neither the government ministries nor the military. It is the military that will determine the outcome of this struggle and it is currently supporting the Maduro government.
While there have been a few attempts by a handful of military personnel to challenge Maduro, most experts, such as Rocio San Miguel and Myala Armas, argue that the military is still very loyal. Military personnel are protected from the economic crisis. Under Chavismo, the Venezuelan military was engaged in what has been called a civil-military alliance. Military personnel worked in the poor barrios with the people on building houses, daycare centers, schools, and infrastructure. The military is seen as a partner in national development. Officers are educated in the Venezuelan Military Academy rather than in the US. Military service among the poor is seen as a way to improve one’s socio-economic status. The current officer leadership that came to power with Chavez/Maduro is stridently opposed to US interference in Latin America and threats of US intervention will serve to unite the military. San Miguel argues that the first sign of a legitimate crack in military loyalty to Maduro will be a movement by a full battalion or a larger unit and there is no current evidence of this.
Elliot Abrams was appointed by the administration as US Special Envoy to Venezuela last week. Personally, I believe this is a terrible selection given his conviction for and his role in Iran-Contra, his efforts to cover up the massacre at El Mazote in El Salvador, and his role as the architect of the failed policy in Central America during the Reagan years. More recently, his support for the attempted coup in 2002 against Chavez will not give him a receptive audience with the Maduro government and even with some of the opposition. Abrams will neither be trusted nor welcomed in Venezuela.
Finally, students have asked me about a US military intervention in Venezuela. President Trump has threatened the military option against Venezuela several times since he was elected. I do not believe the President will do this given his isolationist tendencies and there certainly is no appetite among Americans for such an intervention. It would be a terrible mistake and would raise opposition to the US even from those countries who are opposed to the Maduro government. Latin Americans have long memories of US intervention and dominance in Latin America. A return to US imperialist activities would be resisted throughout Latin America. The continued use of smart sanctions and isolation of the Maduro government are the best policies.
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