Over the past five days (three of them at the beach) I, just like most of you, have watched the television coverage concerning the Russian invasion of Ukraine. I have also read articles from newspapers in the US and Europe, talked with faculty members via email across the country that I know who are Russian experts, and talked with friends via email that I have in the government. I would suggest you read or listen to former NSC staff member Colonel Alexander Vindman, former NSC adviser Fiona Hill, and former Ambassador to Russia, Michael McFaul. At the request of one of my former students, I will offer the following limited observations.
Realist theory of international relations/balance of power theory suggests that major powers historically seek spheres of influence or buffer zones between themselves and their major enemies. In this sense, Russia is behaving just like other major powers throughout history. We know that Putin, who served in the KGB under the Soviet Union, has always expressed a strong desire to recreate either the old Soviet empire or a sphere of influence between it and the NATO alliance which he sees as the greatest threat to Russia. The real question that should be addressed is why Putin invaded at this particular moment. There were some events which clearly encouraged him. He successfully carried out a military expansion in 2008 into the South Ossetia and Abkhazia areas of Georgia, creating 2 states now supported by Russia. In 2014 he successively annexed Crimea and intervened into the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine. Last year he successfully carried out a soft annexation of Belarus via pro-Kremlin political parties. The two countries now share a 5 year state plan involving joint military training bases, one of which is located in the Grodno region near the border with Poland and Lithuania. There has been a gradual merger of their economies. Ukraine was clearly the next target of Putin.
Putin believed that President Trump’s isolationist “America First” foreign policy was supported by most Americans and he was aware of the long-standing isolationist position of some Americans. He calculated that this would prevent the US under President Biden from fully resisting a Russian intervention into Ukraine. Putin believed that Trump had weakened and divided NATO and he calculated that it would not respond in a unified manner to an intervention in Ukraine. He also believed that European dependence on Russian oil and gas would further divide the US and Europe and that Europe would not take sufficient action to prevent a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Finally, Putin believed that the US withdrawal from Afghanistan under Biden was a signal that the US would not respond to an intervention into Ukraine. All of these beliefs turned out to be incorrect and his calculations turned out to be major miscalculations. Biden has been able to restore the US role in global leadership and has reunified NATO. Afghanistan did not represent weakness on the part of the US. The US, NATO, and the EU have responded to the Russian invasion with powerful, unified economic sanctions which are already having a detrimental impact on its economy. The US, NATO, and the EU countries are providing both money and military supplies to support the growing Ukrainian resistance. The vast majority of countries in the world have come to support the unified US, NATO, and EU response. Both the General Assembly and the Security Council are meeting to respond to the Russian invasion and there is a move in the US Congress to support charging Putin with war crimes. All of this is due to the unifying, global leadership of President Biden and the US.
Putin believed that he had sufficient control over the media in his own country to convince Russians to support his invasion based on the myth that he was protecting the Ukrainian people from a Nazi leadership. He simply can’t control the facts. Most of the Russians are well aware of what is actually taking place. In fact, Russian demonstrations against the invasion have occurred in at least 53 cities including Moscow and St. Petersburg. Thousands have been arrested, yet the demonstrations continue. At least two billionaires (oligarchs), Mikhail Fridman and Oleg Deripaska, and several national celebrities in Russia have spoken out against the invasion. The opposition to Putin will grow as the economy begins to suffer under the crippling financial and trade sanctions.
Every military expert that was interviewed on major news shows that I watched and who were interviewed in major newspapers in the US and Europe indicated that the small number of Russian forces used in the invasion and their lack of preparation for necessary supply lines/logistical support for an invasion of such a large country indicated that Putin fully believed this would be a short, successful intervention. Once again, Putin’s incorrect beliefs led to miscalculations in his invasion into Ukraine, at least up to this point in time.
Real leadership appears in times of crisis and this is no better illustrated than with the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. His resolve, bravery, and inspiring patriotic leadership has led to a sustained resistance from both regular Ukrainian military forces and small militia or underground guerrilla units made up of volunteers. This resistance from Ukrainian military forces has been effective and clearly was not anticipated as the Russian military was simply not prepared. Most military observers have indicated that this resistance will make it virtually impossible for Russia to occupy Ukraine unless the number of Russian troops is increased dramatically. It is clear that the Ukrainians are united in their opposition to Russia and will fight to resist it in both the short and long runs.
As to what happens in the future, that remains to be seen but it is clear that Putin is not getting what he wanted due to his own misbeliefs and resultant miscalculations and it could very well lead to his downfall at some point.
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