Part 4: The Legacy of Trump’s Populism. Clearly our democratic institutions and processes have suffered but they have survived Trump’s populist storm that culminated in an insurrection on January 6, 2021. Popular trust in our political institutions has been declining for 40 years, but Trump simply made it worse with his constant attacks on governmental institutions and processes such as elections. The legacy of Trump’s populism will depend on a variety of interrelated factors including the success or lack of success of the Biden presidency; the reaction of the post-election Republican Party; the outcome of numerous federal, state, and personal law suits against Trump; and the Trump media bubble.
As of this writing, Biden has successfully managed the roll out of the COVID vaccines in a more rapid time than most ever expected. He has already passed the COVID relief bill that has overwhelming support by the American public, including Republicans. The Senate parliamentarian has recently stated that Biden’s massive infrastructure bill could be passed via budget reconciliation. This eliminates the filibuster and dramatically increases the likelihood of this popular bill being passed. Virtually all economists have argued that its positive effects on future economic growth and development and employment would be tremendous. Should the Biden administration be able to pass voting reform, America will make a major move toward a more representative and equal society. Passage of this troika of major pieces of legislation would go a long way toward Democratic Party wins in the midterms and a second term in office for Biden. Other pieces of legislation involving immigration reform, the move toward a “greener” economy and a cleaner environment, and police reform (although I note that these are primarily state and local reforms) would clearly raise the trust in our governing institutions. Popular trust in these institutions is correlated with successful policies.
Another factor is the reaction of the Republican Party. In 2008, 2012, and 2016 Republican strategists argued publicly that if the party is to survive the coming demographic shifts in America, it must begin to appeal to minorities and people of color who will be the majority by 2040-50. Yet, the party continues to play singularly to a “white” political base and it has made little effort to adopt policies that would appeal to minorities and people of color. The party is currently using the Big Lie (election fraud in 2020) as a justification for the passage of hundreds of pieces of legislation at the state level which are designed to suppress voter turnout, especially among minorities and people of color. These policies are opposed by virtually all minorities and people of color. They see these policies as a direct attack against them and further alienates people of color from the Republican Party. Interestingly enough, one could argue that the massive turnout in 2020 was achieved despite the previous efforts of suppression and continued efforts may serve to mobilize even greater turnout by minority and people of color voters at the ballot box in support of the Democratic Party.
In the end it is a numbers game for the Republican Party in key states. Georgia, Arizona, and Texas can be used to illustrate. Georgia is becoming increasingly diverse with minorities and people of color dominated Atlanta playing the primary role in determining its political future. In 2016 registered “white” voters in the state represented 63 percent of all those that were registered to vote. By 2020 that percentage had fallen to 53 percent and will continue to fall (Pew Research Center). The key to the growing diversity in Arizona is the dramatic demographic changes in Maricopa Country (Phoenix and Scottsdale) with more than 50 percent of the state’s population. It is now 30 percent Hispanic and this is the 4th fastest growing Hispanic group in the United States. By 2050, Texas, already a diverse state, will be less than 22 percent “white” with minorities and people of color in Houston, Dallas-Ft. Worth, and Austin dominating the state (University of Houston demographic study). The most important question that must be asked is will the current leadership of the Republican Party at the national and state levels begin to address its “color” problem. Failure to do so does not bode well for its future.
Trump is already facing several law suits in the federal courts, as well as suits in New York and Georgia. There are law suits against him based on the insurrection of January 6. There will no doubt be more law suits to follow. Negative outcomes in these will have a dramatic impact on any political future that he may be contemplating. Negative outcomes could simply cause him to “simply fade away” as he increasingly has little to no access to a bully pulpit and other Republicans step into the vacuum he has left.
A final factor is the Trump media bubble that served him so well while he was in office. The media bubble was made up of FOX News and his oversized presence on social media. FOX News continues to have more viewers than CNN or MSNBC and at this point shows little effort to curb their pro-Trump newscasts. Should Trump begin to “simply fade away,” FOX will more than likely return to its original conservative viewpoint distinct from its pro-Trump viewpoint. Social media is currently restricting Trump’s access and this is likely to continue given his lifelong proclivity to spread misinformation, disinformation, and lies.
So, what will be the legacy of Trump’s populism? Vamos a ver…we are going to see.
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