Raul Castro will step down as President of the Council of State and Council of Ministers on April 19, 2018 and be replaced by Miguel Mario Diaz-Canel Bermudez, who represents the birth of a new post-revolutionary generation coming to power in Cuba. Much like Raul Castro prior to his more visible role in economic policy reforms since the mid 1990s, Diaz-Canel is somewhat of an enigma for those of us who observe Cuban politics. In a recent you-tube video, Diaz-Canel is shown at a Cuban Communist Party (PCC) meeting speaking out against the United States. Some have taken this as evidence that he will rule Cuba as a hard-line communist party ideologue and nothing will change, while others argue that he was simply playing to the audience of hardliners at the meeting and that he will be a reformer. So, what is known of the next President of Cuba and will he make a difference?
Diaz-Canel, born in 1960, grew up in Santa Clara as a fan of the Beatles and is often seen wearing jeans today. His father worked in a brewery and his mother was a primary school teacher. He studied electrical engineering and was a radio specialist for two years in the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Cuba. He began teaching at Villa Clara University in 1985 and working his way through the power structure of the PCC. He became a member of the Central Committee of the PCC in 1994 and the leader of the PCC in Villa Clara province. It is important to understand that PCC provincial leaders have extensive responsibilities and power over budgets and the local infrastructure and economy. Many in Villa Clara remember him as a pragmatist and a “breath of fresh air,” who took time to listen to people and personally monitored programs. He allowed the first gay nightclub to remain open. Despite having a government automobile, he rode a bicycle or walked to work each day during the so-called Special Period. It is here that he established a reputation as an honest and effective manager and an opponent of government corruption. He became head of the PCC in Holguin province and was elevated to the PCC Politburo in 2003. His experience as PCC provincial leader in Villa Clara and Holguin is instructive. Both provinces are centers of the important tourist industry and the growing private sector in Cuba. Diaz-Canel was able to develop a working relationship with the military via the tourist industry and became a supporter of the efforts to reform the economy. His reputation as an effective and pragmatic manager and reformer in Villa Clara is the primary reason he was sent to Holguin province, which was seen at that time as a center of some resistance to economic reform. Raul Castro was attracted to him because of his pragmatism and competence.
Diaz-Canel became Minister of Education in 2009 and implemented several reforms including more stringent entrance requirements for admission to the universities and an upgrading of standards for teacher training. In 2013, he became First Vice-President of the Council of State and Council of Ministers and the heir apparent to Raul Castro’s position as President of the Council of State and Council of Ministers. His portfolio includes education, culture, sports, and the media and he has led delegations to China and Vietnam. He has quietly pushed for greater press and internet freedom. He pushed through anti-discriminatory clauses for sexual orientation in the new labor code that was passed in 2014. He is considered a reformer, a Raulista, who supports the implementation of the Chinese model of reform, which includes a mixed economy and continued political control by the PCC. As First Vice-President, he has been circumspect and kept a low profile in public.
Yet, most observers, like myself, do not expect dramatic changes in the near future when Diaz-Canel becomes President in April. There are several reasons for this. One is the slumping economy and the other reasons have to do with the current makeup of the Communist Party Politburo. The economic reforms have stalled over the past two years as the economy has been in a recession largely because of the inability of Venezuela to provide Cuba with oil to meet its energy needs. Cuba needs to import about 50 percent of its oil to meet the energy needs of its economy. Venezuelan oil exports to Cuba were down by more than 40 percent over the past three years and will continue to decline. As a result, the Cuban economy suffers from declining economic growth, lack of supplies and goods, low wages, increasing wage inequality, and a higher cost of living for its people. Rather than moving forward with significant economic changes, such as the long-awaited and necessary currency reform, the government focused on managing the economic austerity and growing inequality on the island. The government has admitted publicly to moving slowly on these reforms.
Raul Castro will continue to serve as First Secretary of the PCC and head of the Politburo until 2021. One must remember that it is the PCC/Politburo that actually makes policy, the state implements policy on the island. This will make it difficult for Diaz-Canel to exercise any independent power as President. There are also significant and competing factions within the Politburo. In addition to the Raulistas, there is a group of ideological hardliners consisting mostly of aging military leaders who are considered to be heroes of the revolution and a group of leaders born in the 1940s who have supported Raulista reformers on occasion and the hardliners on other occasions. Marino Alberto Murillo, a Raulista and reformer, was let go as Minister of the Economy and Planning in 2016. Some saw this as a move by hardliners in the Politburo to blame him for the slumping economy, others saw this as simply a reshuffling of responsibilities as he is still the primary person responsible for the implementation of Raul’s economic reforms. Outside the Politburo, younger Castro-family members also have significant positions. Perhaps the most important is General Luis Alberto Rodriquez Lopez-Callejas, Raul Castro’s son-in-law, who runs GAESA, the military holding company that controls much of the tourism industry and other military businesses. Many observers are not sure of Diaz-Canel’s relationship with these individuals and his ability to manage the Politburo, although some, including myself, argue that his experiences in Villa Clara and Holguin indicate that he at least has a favorable working relationship with all the members. The two-steps forward, one step backward economic reforms will probably continue until 2021, although Diaz-Canel and Raul have promised to move on crucial currency reforms over the next three years. They will also continue to bring in younger, reform-minded members of the PCC into its leadership ranks.
Interestingly enough, the United States will have some to say about the changes in Cuba until Raul steps down as First Secretary of the PCC. Cuba has had a long history of so-called benefactors – hegemonic powers such as Spain and the United States and strategic partners such as the Soviet Union and Venezuela. Raul Castro has never fully trusted the Chavistas and with the current political and economic problems in Venezuela, there is an opportunity to fill the vacuum. The Obama administration was beginning to step in but President Trump has started to roll back Obama initiatives to Cuba. His recent nominees of Mike Pompeo as Secretary of State and John Bolton as National Security Adviser point to a continuation of the reversal of the Obama policy of engagement. This will allow China and/or Russia to take further advantage of the economic and political opportunities and both Raul and Diaz-Canel are predisposed to work with these countries rather than the United States.
Current Minister of the Economy, Ricardo Cabrisas, has recently negotiated several oil deals with ROSNEFT, the Russian state-run oil company. While Russia realistically can only provide Cuba with oil, China has quietly become its major trading partner with investments and joint ventures in bio-medicine, pharmaceuticals, renewable energy, tourism, manufacturing, nickel, oil, and mining. In addition, it is developing a utility-scale biomass renewable energy project. China is selling buses, trucks, tractors, cars, and domestic appliances to Cuba. Diaz-Canel, like Raul, has met with the Chinese leadership several times and has an effective working relationship with them. Should the Trump administration continue its withdrawal from Cuba, the United States will have even less influence over the island than it does now, at perhaps the most important time in the island’s history since the end of the Cold War.
Comments